Senate in early 2024, House candidates, endorsements flood California 22 months before the 2024 election

All this week, the excitement surrounding California’s 2024 Senate election has led to an outbreak of early statements from candidates. Orange County Congresswoman Kathy Porter (D-Cal.) opened it Tuesday, announcing her intention to run for the seat currently held by Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-California). Oakland Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-California) entered the next day, while Porter received her first major endorsement, from Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts). And today, with Porter’s seat on the Organizing Committee now seemingly open, former Congressman Harley Ruda threw his hat in the ring for the seat along with Republican Scott Baugh, who nearly beat Porter for his seat last year.

Meanwhile, the process is far from complete with a whopping 22 months until Election Day 2024. Rep. Ro Khanna and Adam Schiff (R-Cal.) are expected to announce soon whether they will run for Senate, while current Senator Feinstein has filed paperwork to re-run in 2024 at age 91 and an announcement is expected soon. whether she will run again. In addition to the race for the Senate, the race for Congress is also gaining momentum. Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield), who lost to Rep. David Valadao (D-CA) last year, has already filed papers to try again next year. In the 12th district, currently led by Congressman Lee, many candidates are said to be likely to announce their ballots as soon as Lee makes the official announcement.

And on top of all this, there is speculation that everyone from Gov. Gavin Newsom to former Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf and Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Bexer are interested in running for the Senate.

Congressional seats are also full of speculation, such as Nancy Pelosi’s 11th district seat, which the likes of San Francisco Mayor London Breed and State Senator Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) are allegedly looking at. In the 47th district, in which Baugh has already faced Ruda, State Senator David Meane (D-Irvine) is another candidate who could enter this race, potentially dividing the Democrats in the primary.

All of these first candidates, whether certain, probable, or speculative, have largely come as a surprise to Californians, who don’t usually expect campaigns to kick off until at least much later in the year. But since seats are highly valued, especially an open Senate seat in a state where many Democrats are considering running, it seems that the sooner the better – it’s kind of a strategy to get out early.

First Runners

“If you start now, you can build that momentum,” Los Angeles-based political and campaign adviser Roger Armstrong told The Globe Thursday. “Feinstein’s chair is very vulnerable. Not a Republican. They are currently more focused on house races, such as Porter’s place, which they have a decent chance of winning next year. But she is vulnerable due to her age and health problems. She wins at the age of 91, short of her death, she will stay until 97. For many, this is insane, as well as an injustice to younger candidates. Even if she runs, there is no guarantee that she will win this time.”

“That’s why Porter came early. She decided to strike first and go all in in the hope that her new blood would take over if Feinstein ran or if it made Feinstein act and she was eliminated. Of course, Porter probably won’t get her approval if this happens, so she faces it as the consequences. Politics aside, Feinstein is a respected U.S. senator who became mayor in the aftermath of a tragedy and has steadily beaten opponents for decades. Porter is best known for breaking whiteboards and stopping work at the House. Look no further than how she was portrayed in The Onion today to see how people across the country see her.”

“She is also far to the left. If another Democrat turns out to be more centrist and can appeal to some Republicans at the same time, or at least vote for them as “the lesser of two evils”, then Porter is doomed. Feinstein alone would be an uphill battle, as Kevin de Leon found out in 2018 when he tried to beat her.”

“In principle, everyone wants to get in now, as soon as these places are at least potentially open. Getting started early and putting in place the necessary infrastructure and funds to get going when the campaign gets underway is a big advantage, as is gaining name recognition. But it’s also a game of chance. All of this can be for naught if a major candidate shows up out of the blue, or if someone rich and famous, such as a celebrity, jumps into the fray. And we will see more of them soon just because of the others coming sooner.”

New candidates for the Senate and other candidates for the House of Representatives for 2024 are expected to emerge soon.

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