Padres Off-Season Primer: How Much $$$ Does San Diego Have to Spend in Free Agency?

The Padres had the 7th-highest payroll in baseball in 2022. They ended up as one of the final four teams alive in the hunt for a World Series. So, by that very simple measure San Diego got what it paid for.

At the trade deadline the Friars went bonkers, blowing right through the luxury tax threshold in an attempt to win it all. Now the question is: will they do it again next year, only this time go even further? To answer that we first need to answer this question: just how close to that threshold are they going to be if and when that moment comes?

MLB free agency doesn’t start until after the World Series but we can get a pretty good picture of what the 2023 Padres payroll will look like right now, starting with the guys we know for sure are going to be around (and everything that follows comes with the caveat that another AJ Preller trade-a-palooza could reshape 30% of the big league roster again).

Under Contract

Manny Machado – $32 million
Joe Musgrove – $20 million
Yu Darvish – $19 million
Blake Snell – $16 million
Drew Pomeranz – $10 million
Ha-Seong Kim – $7 million
Luis Garcia – $3.75 million
Fernando Tatis Jr. – $6.3 million

TOTAL – $114.05 million

The Tatis hit would have been $7 million but there’s that whole suspension thing where he’ll miss 20 games next year for which he does not get paid. Getting even a single pitch from Pomeranz would be fantastic after he missed all of 2022 recovering from surgery on his throwing arm.

Plus, they are not alone. The Friars have a long list of players under contractual control through the arbitration process. Here’s the list of guys who need to negotiate a contract and an estimate on what they’ll get for a one-year deal (assuming none of them sign long-term extensions instead).

Arbitration Eligible

Juan Soto – $22 million
Josh Hader – $14 million
Jake Cronenworth – $4.5 million
Jorge Alfaro – $3.5 million
Trent Grisham – $2.5 million
Austin Nola – $2.5 million
Tim Hill – $1.7 million
Austin Adams – $1 million
Adrian Morejon – $1 million
Jose Castillo – $800,000

TOTAL – $53.5 million

Soto is obviously the one that will get the most attention. He has two years of arbitration left and there is a real desire to keep him in San Diego for a decade or so. But, coming off his worst season as a pro, it’s probably not in his best interest to negotiate a long-term contract this off-season. Hader had an up-and-down season but he struck out the last eight hitters he faced in the playoffs so it appears he’s back to being his All-Star self.

Cronenworth is a 2-time All-Star and was runner-up for the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Award. If anyone deserves a multi-year deal it’s this cat and he might be the most likely to sign for the long term. Grisham is going to have to prove his Wild Card performance is the real thing and not his NLCS showing before he gets a new deal. Nola is as steady as they come behind the plate but the Padres will almost certainly be looking for an offensive upgrade behind the plate.

On this list there are a few non-tender candidates (meaning no contract is offered and they become free agents). Adams and Castillo are coming off injuries and Alfaro, despite electrifying the Petco Park crowd with five walkoff hits and becoming a fan favorite, did not appear at all in the postseason so the front office might be looking elsewhere for catching depth or ready to turn the job over to prospect Luis Campusano.

So, let’s say those three are not offered contracts. That means an estimated $48.2 million in arbitration money (again, assuming no long-term deals are reached).

The next group of players is guys with contract options.

Options

Wil Myers – $20 million (club)
Jurickson Profar – $8.3 million (player)
Nick Martinez – $6.5 million (player)
Robert Suarez – $5 million (player)

The club will almost certainly not pick up the Myers option. But Wil told me after Game 5 of the NLCS that he’d be open to staying in San Diego on a new contract so there’s at least a possibility he’ll be around for another year. It’s hard to imagine Profar getting more than an average annual value of $8 million but he might want to leave for a longer-term deal with more guaranteed overall money. Martinez was invaluable for the Padres in his first season with the club. He started, he handled long relief, he closed, and he did all of it well. Suarez came back from knee surgery that cost him two months and allowed four earned runs in 24.1 innings, going unscored upon in his final 13 regular season outings.

Assuming Profar and Martinez re-up while Suarez and Myers hit free agency that adds another $14.8 million to the payroll.

Then we have the pre-arbitration pool who will make right around the league minimum. This is a list of potential candidates since obviously there’s not enough room for them all on the active roster. Going by the list we’ve already established there are 17 players on the 2023 Padres roster, leaving nine spots for any combination of this list.

Pre-Arbitration (minimum $720,000)

Jose Azocar
Michel Baez
Matt Batten
Luis Campusano
Nabil Crismatt
Brandon Dixon
Ray Kerr
Reiss Knehr
Jason Groome
Eguy Rosario
Ryan Weathers
Steven Wilson

Nine guys would be a total of about $6.5 million. There is one more unfortunate category that must be accounted for.

Dead Money

Eric Hosmer – $12.3 million

We really don’t need to go in-depth about this. No need to get anyone else a revenge Twitter block. So, add it all up and we’re looking at a 2023 Padres payroll commitment of $195.85 million.

In 2023, Major League Baseball’s luxury tax threshold is $233 million. Since they exceeded the tax threshold each of the last two years, if they do it again next season, they’ll owe a 50% tax on however many dollars they go over. That leaves $37.15 million but not all of that can be used in free agency. There are always other things that add up during the season like adding extra players due to injury, etc., so to be safe let’s reserve $8 million for that purpose. That leaves them $29.15 million to play around with in free agency and stay under the luxury tax threshold.

But they also might be adding payroll at the trade deadline again so they probably don’t want to spend all of it this off-season, meaning they have limited funds if they’re looking to re-sign any of their own free agents.

Free Agents

Josh Bell
Mike Clevinger
Brandon Drury
Pierce Johnson
Sean Manaea
Craig Stammen

Stammen is likely going to retire and if that happens hopefully, he joins the club in a front office or coaching capacity. He’s a wonderful asset to have around an organization. Johnson has been extremely effective when healthy and probably won’t break the bank.

The other four have all said they love being in San Diego and would like to stay here. The Padres cannot afford all of them. Retaining any of these guys most likely means a pre-arbitration player would not make the roster so that adds $720,000 back to the pool, which is not a whole lot in the world of Major League Baseball finance but it’s something.

We’ll leave the debate on who they should prioritize for another day. There are plenty of ways to get creative with the roster and contract structures. For now, it’s very likely San Diego will have a little less than $30 million to play with. AJ, work your magic.

LISTEN: With NBC 7 San Diego’s Darnay Tripp and Derek Togerson behind the mic, On Friar will cover all things San Diego Padres. Interviews, analysis, behind-the-scenes…the ups, downs, and everything in between. Tap here to find On Friar wherever you listen to podcasts. 

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