CNY is looking at the warmest start to November in at least 120 years

Syracuse, N.Y. — November, normally the gateway to winter in Upstate New York, is instead going to start out feeling like the first days of fall.

The first week of November is forecast to be the warmest such period in Syracuse since official records began 120 years ago. If National Weather Service predictions bear out, the average temperature over the next seven days will be nearly 60 degrees. That’s 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, and more typical of late September than early November.

We can thank a deep drop in the jet stream for that, said New York state Climatologist Mark Wysocki.

“We’re going to have a big dip, starting from above the state of Washington, going all the way down to Texas, and then it rises back up to the Midwest,” Wysocki explained. “And we’re going to be on the warm side of this thing.”

In the map above, you can see the result of that big dip in the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives global patterns. While everywhere west of the Great Plains will be cooler than normal, everywhere to the east will be warmer. Upstate New York will exceed the normal local temperatures more than anywhere else in the country.

These deep undulations in the jet stream tend to hang around for a week or so, Wysocki said.

Other than a slim chance of a tenth of an inch of rain on Tuesday, there’s almost no rain in the forecast through next Monday.

For the next week, high temperatures in Syracuse will be in the 60s and even lower 70s, while overnight temperatures will be mostly in the 50s. Normally, those lows would be our highs: Average maximum temperatures this time of year are in the low 50s. Lows are generally in the upper 30s.

Here’s the catch: The jet stream will eventually start to flatten out, and that will open the atmosphere to blasts of cold air into the Northeast. Just as we’re well above normal now, we’re likely to have an equal period of colder-than-normal soon, Wysocki said.

“We’re just going to have this wild kind of swing in temperatures,” he said. “I don’t see anything in the horizon that’s going to change that for about the next month.”

The Climate Prediction Center says it’s likely that Syracuse will end up with an overall normal November for temperature. That means that this strong warm spell at the beginning of the month will likely be balanced by a weeklong cold spell later in the month.

We’d better get used to it, Wysocki said. The third La Nina winter in a row is likely to keep up lurching between temperature extremes all the way into spring, he said.

“I feel sorry for anybody who wants to do skiing or snowmobiling or anybody who wants to get wants to get into the winter spirit,” he said. “We’ll have the winter spirit for a week at a time, and then we’ll be abnormally warm for a week at a time.”

READ MORE

Winter 2022-23 predictions: ‘A winter of extremes’ looks likely for Upstate NY

CNY has gotten wetter, whiter and warmer, new weather normals show

25 Things That Make Syracuse Great: The Seasons

Content Source

California Press News – Latest News:
Los Angeles Local News || Bay Area Local News || California News || Lifestyle News || National news || Travel News || Health News

Related Articles

Back to top button