Bills vs. Patriots preview for Week 13: Keys to the game & our writers make their picks

Foxborough, Mass. — In Josh Allen’s last eight quarters of football against the New England Patriots, the Buffalo Bills quarterback has been flawless.

Allen threw for a combined eight touchdowns in last season’s Week 16 and Wild Card Playoff victories versus the Patriots. The Bills didn’t trail for a second or punt a single time in those two games.

The Bills made it look easy in those two games, but Allen isn’t expecting to just pick up where they left off on Thursday Night Football when they travel to Gillette Stadium to battle their AFC East rivals for the first time this season.

“We understand as a team that what we did last year has no effect, is not going to help us in any way this next game,” he said. “They’re a team that’s playing at a high level right now. We’ve got to be ready for whatever they can throw at us.”

Buffalo is riding an impressive two-game win streak into their third divisional game of the season after wins over the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions at Ford Field in the span of four days. The Bills, however, are still winless in the AFC East after losing earlier in the year to the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets.

The Patriots currently sit in last place in the division but are coming off an impressive offensive showing against the Minnesota Vikings. Bill Belichick’s defense is ranked no. 1 in the league in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric (-17.8%), which calculates a percentage based on when and how plays are made in games. The Bills defense ranks third overall and first in overall DVOA through 11 games.

Bills coach Sean McDermott said this week the Patriots could end up being the best defense his offense will face all season.

“It’s been put together the right way,” he said. “They’ve got guys up front that can handle the run by themselves at times. They’ve got physical linebackers that play downhill. And then they’ve got a group of cover guys in the back, let’s just call it seven even, that do multiple things, and they match up and have different coverage packages and looks and disguises. So they do a great job.”

Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon is the best pure pass rusher in the league this season. He leads the NFL with 13 sacks, is third in QB hits with 24, and second in QB pressures with 28. In three games last season, Judon totaled just five total pressures and one sack.

Judon called Allen a special talent ahead of his fourth game against the Bills’ quarterback.

“It’s only a certain few that are willing to take those hits like he does,” Judon told Boston reporters this week. “and bounce right back up and laugh and giggle about it, and then go throw a bomb the next play.”

Judon’s job should be much easier this go-around against the Bills with Pro Bowl left tackle Dion Dawkins ruled out with an ankle injury. He’ll likely see veteran backup David Quessenberry at left tackle and second-year right tackle Spencer Brown. The two offensive linemen have combined to allow 48 QB pressures on the season.

While fans are understandably concerned about the protection in front of Allen this week, there is some good news that came out of One Bills Drive this week. Allen was a full participant in practice all three days for the first time since his elbow injury against the Jets.

The Bills won’t have superstar pass rusher Von Miller, who suffered a knee injury last week and is expected to miss some time. He said on his podcast that he’s hopeful to be back, with a brace, for the Jets game next week. With Miller out, the Bills are fortunate to welcome back Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who have been battling ankle injuries the past few weeks.

Jones’ protection has been an issue at times this season. Sturdy center David Andrews is questionable with a thigh injury but is expected to play. Right guard Mike Onwenu has been good this season, too. The other three spots haven’t held up well in front of Jones.

Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver won AFC Defensive Player of the Week after his monster performance against the Lions. He’ll need to spearhead the interior push to make things difficult on Jones on Thursday.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Getting a healthy Tremaine Edmunds back

The Bills missed Edmunds last week and it showed with the way the Lions were able to win consistently in the passing game over the middle part of the field. Jones should be very careful with the ball when he decides to throw it in Edmunds’ range because of his speed and coverage ability. Edmunds’ presence makes up for some deficiencies at times on the boundary and even in the slot.

No turnovers on offense for the Bills

When the Bills have struggled this season it’s come down to the offense’s inability to take care of the football. Respecting the ball has been an emphasis for McDermott the past month and Allen must continue to not put the ball in harm’s way. He’s thrown just one interception in his past two games.

Feed Devin Singletary

The Bills are 4-0 when Singletary gets 14 carries or more this season. Singletary averaged over 5 yards per carry last week and played well against the Patriots last season. He can be a factor in the run and the passing game, and a healthy run game in this game can help keep the Patriots’ pass rush off balance.

PREDICTIONS

Damien Harris was a workhorse for the Patriots last season against the Bills and he’s been ruled out for this game. Yodny Cajuste has been a turnstile when he’s been in at right tackle and he’s playing for injured starter Isaiah Wynn, who also hasn’t been very good. Pressure Mac Jones, take care of the ball, and the Bills may have to win a close game. But in the end, there are just too many weapons for a healthy Josh Allen. The Bills slam down the door in the fourth quarter. – Parrino

SCORE: Bills 35, Patriots 17

Matthew Judon is probably licking his lips looking at the state of the tackle position for the Bills heading into Thursday Night Football, but unless he completely takes over the game, I don’t see a scenario where the Patriots win this game. On defense, Buffalo should be able to limit Rhamondre Stevenson while keeping Mac Jones in check. Offensively, Buffalo will need to protect Josh Allen from Judon, but the Bills QB has had New England’s number as of late. That continues Thursday night as the Bills pull away from the Patriots. – Ryan Talbot

SCORE: Bills 33, Patriots 20

READ MORE

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Von Miller provides injury update and timeline for possible return

It’s time for Bills to bench Dane Jackson (Encouraged/worried)

Bills want the Smoke: Team signs fan favorite WR to practice squad

Our thoughts and the latest on Von Miller’s knee injury

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