As Tropical Storm Nicole nears Florida, flood worries rise in Upstate NY

Syracuse, N.Y. — Tropical Storm Nicole is expected to make landfall tonight on Florida’s Atlantic coast, and Upstate New York forecasters are already worried about potential flooding here this weekend.

With each new forecast from the National Weather Service, the projected path of the storm has inched westward, and now the heaviest bands of rain are expected to be farther inland, reaching into Central and Western New York.

Most of Upstate looks to get 2 inches or more of rain, but there could be pockets of 4 inches, the weather service said in issuing a hazardous weather alert.

“Although exact rainfall totals remain uncertain at this time, there is at least a slight risk for excessive rainfall across most of the region,” the alert said.

There’s a 15% chance of enough rainfall to cause flooding in any given area, the weather service said.

The good news is that October and November have been warm and dry, so river and creek levels are low and the ground can absorb rain as it falls. Syracuse has received just 1.5 inches of rain since Oct. 1, about 3 inches below normal for that period.

The biggest concern for flash flooding will be on streets, especially those where fallen leaves plug drains; and on smaller creeks and streams, which are more likely than large rivers to jump their banks during intense rainfall.

We’ll see a couple more days of drying out before the rain starts. Today and Thursday will be sunny, with temperatures reaching into the 60s.

Winter is headed toward us, however. The remnants of Nicole will clash with a cold front sweeping in from the Upper Great Lakes, dragging in the coldest air of the season so far and perhaps our first lake effect snow.

That cold air, blowing across relatively warm Great Lakes, could drop lake effect snow in Western New York and on Tug Hill Saturday night and Sunday. The weather service isn’t offering any predictions yet about how much snow could fall or exactly where, because lake effect snow tends to come in narrow, fluctuating bands that are tricky to forecast.

By early next week, as a dramatic cooling trend begins, low temperatures will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s.

Colder weather on the way

The entire continental United States is expected to be colder than normal next week as storm systems haul in the coldest air of the season so far.

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